TRNC Meteorology Department Director Warns of the Impact of El Niño

The natural phenomenon of El Niño will have an indirect impact on climate processes in the Eastern Mediterranean. The Director of the Northern Cyprus Department of Meteorology, Sinan Güneş, said that if El Niño conditions intensify, temperatures above seasonal norms, longer periods of drought, and an overall decrease in precipitation, along with short but intense downpours, may be recorded on the island in both the summer and winter months. According to the World Meteorological Organization, the probability of El Niño conditions between June and August is estimated at 80%, and it reaches 90% by November.

Sinan Güneş reminded that previous periods of activity of this phenomenon had already led to temperature records in Northern Cyprus: on June 14, 2024, a record heat of 46.8 degrees for the past 50 years was recorded in Turkeli. Among other extreme weather events in recent years, the head of the department cited 232 kg of precipitation per square meter in Beylerbeyi in December 2025, a drop in temperature to minus 6.2 degrees in Geçitkale in February, as well as gale-force winds reaching 171 km/h in Serdarlı in November 2024.

Reviewing the past seasons, the department head noted that this March became the third wettest in the past 51 years — with a norm of 35 kg per square meter, 84 kg were recorded, which exceeded the average by 140%. At the same time, November 2025 went down in the history of observations as the warmest in the past 50 years: the amount of precipitation was 64% below normal, and an all-time temperature record for this month was registered in Güzelyurt — 34 degrees. December 2025 that followed, as well as January and February 2026, also kept temperatures above the climatic norm, with February 2026 becoming the second warmest February in the history of observations since 1975.

Sinan Güneş also paid special attention to the increasing cases of dust transport, which worsen air quality. Department statistics show a steady rise in the number of days with dusty atmosphere in Northern Cyprus: if there were only 15 such days in 2011, the figure rose to 61 in 2023, to 73 in 2024, and reached 98 days in 2025. In the first five months of 2026, 40 days with dust in the air have already been recorded. The main cause of this phenomenon is said to be drought and desertification in key source regions — North Africa (the Sahara) and the Middle East. Specialists forecast a further increase in the duration and frequency of such dust events.

As part of infrastructure expansion, the TRNC Meteorology Department continues work to ensure the accuracy of observations. The network of automatic stations in the north of the island has been expanded to 47 units. Work is currently underway to install new stations in Alagadi and Gazimağusa, four of which were created with the support of the European Union. Reconstruction of the department’s old building at Ercan Airport is also continuing, while Güneş named the need to build a new meteorological observation tower on the airport grounds as a priority task.