From “$1,000 to $100,000 in a couple of clicks”: investigation exposes a massive scheme with fake winnings on Polymarket

The prediction platform Polymarket has been at the center of a major scandal after an investigation revealed that many viral videos about incredible betting profits were staged. The videos, in which users supposedly turn a thousand dollars into hundreds of thousands in just a few days, were actually filmed using fake versions of the site and fictitious bets.

According to the investigation, more than 1,100 videos were found in which content creators showed off large wins and «unerring» bets. Special test versions of the platform were used for filming, visually almost indistinguishable from the real service. The authors of the videos showed audiences how they supposedly placed tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars on the most unusual events — for example, whether a well-known politician would say a certain word within a month.

Stories of fantastic profits were especially striking. In one viral video, a student showed a $100,000 win after betting that Donald Trump would publicly say the word «McDonald's». However, the investigation showed that this bet never existed in reality, and the money on the screen was only part of the performance.

According to the published data, participants in the program were paid from several hundred to several thousand dollars per month to create this kind of content. In some cases, bloggers were advised not to disclose that the videos were advertising or that they were receiving payment for the posts.

The analysis showed that in 118 popular videos, users supposedly earned a total of about $900,000. However, if the same trades had actually been made on the real market, the outcome would have been the opposite — the total loss would have exceeded $166,000.

The scandal has intensified questions about the prediction markets industry itself, which has been experiencing a real boom in recent years. Critics have long warned that showcasing isolated successful trades creates the illusion of easy money for beginners. At the same time, statistics show that the main profits go only to a few professional players. According to another analysis, about 67% of all profits on the platform go to just 0.1% of the most successful accounts.

What is Polymarket?

Polymarket is the world’s largest cryptocurrency prediction platform, where users do not make traditional sports bets, but buy and sell contracts on the probability of various events.

On the platform, you can predict virtually anything:

— election results;

— central bank decisions;

— launches of new products by major companies;

— sporting events;

— international conflicts;

— even whether a well-known politician will say a certain phrase.

The operating principle is similar to the stock market. If a participant believes that an event will happen, they buy a «Yes» contract. If the probability of the event rises, the contract price increases and can be sold for a higher price. If the forecast turns out to be wrong, the invested money is lost.

Despite its popularity, Polymarket has already repeatedly drawn the attention of journalists and regulators because of questions about transparency, possible market manipulation and the use of insider information. The new scandal involving staged videos could become one of the most serious blows to the platform’s reputation, as it positions itself as a source of objective forecasts about the future.