Europe Could Cool by 30 ºC by 2100, Climate Scientists Say

An unusual zone has existed in the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean for many years, remaining colder than the surrounding waters despite the overall trend of global warming. Scientists call it the «cold blob» — a mysterious cold spot southeast of Greenland. New research shows that its appearance may be linked to the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) — one of the planet's most important ocean current systems.

AMOC carries warm water from the tropics into the northern Atlantic and plays a key role in shaping Europe's climate. Thanks to this system, many European countries have milder winters than other regions at the same latitudes. However, over the past decades, scientists have increasingly recorded signs of its gradual weakening.

According to researchers, the water temperature in the cold spot area has dropped by about 0.3–1 °C over the past 100–150 years, despite the overall warming of the world's oceans. One possible explanation is the reduced inflow of warm waters into the northern Atlantic, as well as the melting of Greenland's glaciers, which leads to the freshening of the ocean and disrupts the usual circulation.

Experts stress that there is still no talk of the imminent shutdown of AMOC. Nevertheless, some climate models suggest that a critical weakening of the system could begin in the second half of the 21st century. The period of the 2050s–2060s is most often mentioned in studies, although such forecasts remain a matter of scientific debate.

In the event of a serious weakening or even collapse of AMOC, the consequences could affect a significant part of the Northern Hemisphere. Among the likely effects are changes in precipitation patterns, stronger storms, rising sea levels along certain coasts, and cooling in some parts of Europe. Some studies allow for an extreme scenario in which winter temperatures in certain regions of Northern Europe could end up dozens of degrees lower than current values — by as much as 30 °C. However, scientists emphasize that such an outcome is considered one of the harshest possible scenarios and is not the main forecast of climatologists.

Researchers continue to closely monitor the state of the «cold blob» and Atlantic circulation. According to them, this anomalous zone could become one of the most important indicators of future climate change on the planet.