The Cyprus issue is splitting the Turkish Cypriot political establishment

The dispute is no longer taking place only between the North and the South. Today, one of the main conflicts surrounding a Cyprus settlement is unfolding not only between the Republic of Cyprus and the TRNC, but also within the Turkish Cypriot political camp itself.

The main dispute concerns the future of the island. One part of the political elite believes that federation talks have completely failed and that recognition of two states must be pursued. Another is convinced that abandoning the federal model will only cement the international isolation of Turkish Cypriots and make a settlement impossible.

The Ustel and Tatar camp: a two-state course

The strongest positions today are held by Prime Minister Unal Ustel, the ruling National Unity Party and former TRNC President Ersin Tatar.

After the collapse of the Crans-Montana talks in 2017, they made the two-state concept their definitive choice. Their position is based on several principles:

• recognition of the sovereign equality of Turkish Cypriots;
• the international status of the TRNC;
• the preservation of Turkish guarantees;
• the presence of Turkish troops as the basis of security.

For this camp, the security issue is key. Any proposals for the withdrawal of Turkish troops or the renunciation of Ankara's guarantees are seen as unacceptable.

Ersin Erhürman and the federalist supporters

The main opponent of the statehood advocates is the leader of the Turkish Cypriot community, Tufan Erhürman.

He continues to support a bi-communal, bi-zonal federation and believes that talks must resume from the point at which they were suspended in Crans-Montana.

In essence, the dispute between the two camps comes down to one question: should the division of the island be definitively formalized, or should the search continue for a formula for its political reunification?

The struggle is also taking place within the pro-two-state camp

Contradictions exist even among allies. Although Ustel and Tatar share similar views on the settlement, tensions periodically arise between supporters of the former president and the government over political influence and control of the negotiation agenda.

Tatar seeks to retain a leading role in representing Turkish Cypriots internationally, while the government is trying to strengthen its own influence over the shaping of an overall strategy. That is why the statehood camp is marked not only by unity but also by hidden competition.

Turkey remains the main factor

Virtually all major TRNC forces acknowledge Turkey's special role. However, it is Ustel's supporters who place the main bet on Ankara.

For them, Turkey is simultaneously a security guarantor, the main political ally and a key source of economic support. It is no coincidence that in the ruling party's documents, the preservation of Turkish guarantees is called a «red line».

A new challenge: Central Asia

Additional irritation in Turkish Cypriot and Turkish circles was caused by the strengthening of the Republic of Cyprus's ties with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

In pro-government Turkish media, these contacts were described as Nicosia's diplomatic offensive on the Turkic front. Particularly painful is the fact that the states with which the TRNC hopes to develop relations through the Organization of Turkic States are actively cooperating precisely with the Republic of Cyprus. For supporters of international recognition for the TRNC, this became a worrying signal and a reason for renewed debate about the prospects of the current strategy.

Society is tired of the deadlock

At the same time, a significant part of Turkish Cypriot society is showing less and less interest in the ideological dispute between the federation and two-state concepts. Public figures and representatives of the academic community speak primarily about the consequences of international isolation, economic restrictions and the lack of progress in negotiations. For many residents of northern Cyprus, the main question is no longer the model of settlement, but when there will be any chance at all to break out of the current deadlock.

Who dominates today?

In institutional terms, the advantage remains with supporters of two states. They control the main bodies of power, shape the TRNC's official negotiating position and enjoy Turkey's support.

However, the political picture is much more complex. The federalist camp retains influence, society is showing fatigue from the protracted conflict, and the Republic of Cyprus's diplomatic successes are prompting some Turkish Cypriot politicians to doubt the effectiveness of the current course. Therefore, the main feature of the current stage is not unity on the Turkish Cypriot side, but growing competition between different visions of the island's future. It is this internal dispute that is now largely determining the prospects for a Cyprus settlement.